My Singapore shares (Part 1) - MC0.si, T82u.si and O39.si

Excluding the investment-linked portfolio for my insurance plans, my foray into stocks was limited to purchase of IPOs and OCBC's investment scheme.

In this post, I will share about the stocks that I've held (GLP) and are still holding (Suntec and OCBC).

Global Logistics Properties (MC0.si)

Having bought at $1.96 during its IPO offer period, I sold it off to fund my current HK portfolio when it recovered to $1.86 recently. While the stock is now trading at a price slightly beyond my valuation at this time, I intend to buy in at $1.75 in the future as a long-term investment.

Suntec City (T82U.si)

This was my first IPO that I bought in 2004 ($1). The only I regret I have for this stock was that I didn't buy more then (I placed a bid for only 1 lot). I had been waiting for the stock to fall to $1.30 but it only hit a low of $1.50 before rebounding recently.

Planning for an entry at 1.64 in the near future.

OCBC Bank (O39.si)

I bought OCBC shares through their Blue Chip Investment Plan when it first launched in 2014. While this approach allowed me to acquire stock that I normally would be unable to due to OCBC's minimum lot size, I didn't realise at that time that there were several disadvantages to the plan.

The worst was that I bought it at a high period - though the price was averaged down (worst strategy ever), I ended up with 300 lots with an average price of $10.30 each.

I will share about my other IPO purchases in a following post:

• Mapletree Industrial Trust (ME8U.si)
• Mapletree Commercial Trust (N2IU.si)

Yuhua (2728.hk) - Stalling?

I can't say I'm too pleased with the performance of this stock as indicators (William %R approaching 50, OBV flat, MACD crossover) indicate that price is stalling.

Will be giving it until tomorrow afternoon before deciding whether to pull the plug or not.

Brightoil (933.hk) - Going up

Having bought at $1.97, the stock is halfway to my initial target of $2.50.

Indicators (EMA ↑ RSI ↑ OBV ↑ MACD ↑) still indicate that trend has yet to change.

I would have pyramided this position now, but with the current exposure to 2728.hk, I think I'll be cutting it a bit too close.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Down but not (yet) out

It went down to a low of $1.73 but rebounded strongly before noon, extremely quiet in the afternoon though.

I'm still tracking this stock with an eye on going back in again :)

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Coming down?

Somebody just dumped 2M shares onto the market in the last 20 minutes of trading today. Will it cause a subsequent panic in the masses or will it just be shrugged off as a correction?

Brightoil (933.hk) - Volatility rules!

Big jumps happening here. Like the product the company handles, the price is quite volatile.

Yuhua (2728.hk) - Seizing the opportunity?

I've exceeded my own rule of no more than HKD$2,000, buying 4,000 shares at HKD$1.

But the bull signs look very strong. Will I be proven right (in being stupid) or right (in getting on board the right stock)?

Brightoil (933.hk) - Pressure building up?

OBV has been increasing but there seems to be a lot of pressure against the price going up.

Nevertheless, I still remain optimistic (EMA ↑ RSI ↑ OBV ↑ MACD ↑) that price will be going up soon.

Taking out the Stops

Benefits of this strategy for market makers:
- increases trading volume / activity
- allow purchase entry at lower prices

The only counter against this I know so far is to not use stop-loss orders, but will take tremendous discipline for traders like myself to sell my stocks when stop loss has been reached.

Leaving and giving value to other traders

"The experienced trader uses a self-injury scheme to enhance the probability of successfully entering and exiting the trade. He buys a little higher than the bottom, but not too much, and sells at a slightly lower price than the absolute top of the trend.

This self-injury entry and exit discipline puts a limit in our greed." - Daryl Guppy

Avoiding the Greed trap

"Always remember that the primary trading objective is to capture as much of the trend as possible - not all of it.

Collecting the very bottom and the very top of a trend or a rally is an almost impossible task, but this beauty trap encourages us to try."

"Greed delays the exit for hope of higher prices, and when the trend collapses, it takes the position with it. The trader falls into the beauty trap."

- Daryl Guppy

Recognizing a Baited stock

Not easy to spot with current trading software/website at this time though, but useful information nonetheless.

Brightoil (933.hk) - Scouting for Gold

Bought in today at $1.97 as the OBV seems to have stabilised.

Looking at a target price of $2.50 (25% profit).

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Post-trade thoughts

After closing my Youyuan (2268.hk) positions at $1.77 in the morning, the stock reached a new high at $1.90 today.

It did leave a considerably sour taste in the mouth for a while, thinking that I left another $260 on the table, which was almost half of the profits that I took this morning.

But well, what experienced traders such as Dr Alexander Elder said, if we were to regret what was left, perhaps it would be better for me not to trade at all.

I've been trawling for the next stock to put my funds since this morning but haven't been successful as well. Hopefully can find something tomorrow that can meet my needs.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - My first full trade

After 11 days from my first position, I finally decided to close my positions in 2268.hk.

With the OBV stagnating, I think a price reversal is likely to happen soon. While this could be an over-due pullback given its bullish run over the past few days (across a weekend), I decided to pull the plug today to lock in my profits and scratch the itch to look for another trade.

Final Outcome (in HKD)

Cost - $1456 + $1606 = $3062

Proceeds = $3527

Profit = $465 (15.2%)

Shifang (1831.hk) - The next stock to track?

My previous stock screener highlighted this stock to me when I started - the cause of its fall in early March caught my eye.

"The media watchdog has suspended the license of a film distributor that inflated the mainland box office figures of the Hong Kong martial-arts movie Ip Man 3 by holding fake screenings. The scam was apparently intended to create a buzz that would then attract real moviegoers. The film, the third in a franchise starring Donnie Yen and former professional boxer Mike Tyson, opened on the mainland on March 4.

The media watchdog launched a probe on March 7 after moviegoers said on social media platform Sina Weibo that screenings were scheduled every 10 minutes, from 00:56 to 2:05, at a cinema in Wuhan, in the central province of Hubei. The tickets cost 203 yuan, four times the regular price. Beijing Max Screen held more than 7,600 “ghost screenings” and bought 56 million yuan worth of tickets, the State Administration of Press, Publications, Radio, Film and Television said on March 19. The government said it has suspended Beijing Max Screen from releasing movies for a month.

Hong Kong-listed Shifang Holding Ltd. acquired the rights to 55 percent of the movie’s earnings on the mainland, a filing with the stock exchange in February said. Shi Jianxiang, the head of Max Screen, was appointed chairman of Shifang soon after that deal.

Shifang’s stock price closed at 3.6 yuan, a 52-week high, when Ip Man 3 opened. It dropped by more than 60 percent after the government said it was investigating whether ticket sales figures were manipulated."

Source: http://english.caixin.com/2016-03-21/100922862.html


Addendum on 29 March:
Considering the OBV, it seems that this stock is on a long downward trajectory. Therefore, it has been dropped from my list of tracked stocks.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Still going strong?

Just learnt about the OBV indicator from another book today. Seems like a useful indicator that can be used for further analysis.

While the RSI has fallen slightly, it seems that 2268.hk might not have reached its peak yet since the OBV isn't flatlining yet.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Passing resistance?

Will $1.60 be the new support for this stock?

Still see my little footprint mark marking its return into the 60s territory :)

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Another 1000 shares

Another lesson learnt today - buying the stock using a limit buy order above the current market price will fill your order at market price...

That would be my limit buy order for another 1000 shares of 2268.hk at $1.60 :p

So now I have a pyramid, albeit a short one...

Youyuan (2268.hk) - What will this week bring?

Placed an order to do a pyramid.

Let's see if this bullrun continues.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - An exciting end for the trading week

Youyuan (2268.hk) - End of run?

Addendum on 30 March:
This was before I discovered the usefulness of OBV in determining whether the stock was still of interest to the investors.

With OBV as one of my preferred indicators, I seem to get a better feel of the market.

Pyramiding Strategy

Pyramiding is adding to positions as price moves in the desired trend direction. It is a highly aggressive trading strategy suitable only for full-time professional traders who know how to control risks and have the discipline to execute a tested plan consistently. It should be executed only according a predetermined and tested method which includes an effective stop loss.

Although pyramiding increases profits if the trend continues as hoped, pyramiding also increases losses if the trend reverses, so risk control is key. Reward/risk tradeoffs quickly turn against the pyramid trader when the price trend reverses.

Because adding to positions changes the total cost of the entire position on a per-unit basis toward the last price, a quick reversal to the original entry price can result in a significant loss. And if the price changes direction quickly and steeply, such as on a gap or fast market, it can be impossible or difficult to limit risk according to plan.

The signal to add to positions may be triggered at predetermined price points that confirm the trend direction.

Such price points might be based on volatility bands, moving averages, a variety of trendlines, logical chart points, penetration of resistance levels, and so on.

The standard pyramid, which is also known as the scaled-down pyramid or upright pyramid, starts with a large initial position and is followed by predetermined additions that decrease systematically in size as price moves in the indicated trend direction. For example, if the initial entry was for 100 shares, then as price moves to the next predetermined level add 50 more shares, then 25 more at the next level, then 13 more, for a total of 188 shares.

The inverted pyramid, which is also known as the equal amounts pyramid, adds to an initial position in equal share-size increments. For example, if the initial entry was for 100 shares, then as price moves to the next predetermined level add 100 more, then if the price continues 100 more, then 100 more, for a total of 400. Here, however, the average cost per share is much higher, such that a smaller price reversal eliminates all profit. The inverted pyramid offers greater potential reward at the cost of much greater risk, as compared to the standard, scaled-down pyramid.

The reflecting pyramid systematically adds to a position up to a predetermined price level, then it reduces the position systematically as the trend continues, so the reflecting pyramid is not a pure trend following method. If the price does have a major move in the indicated trend direction, the reflecting pyramid would result in less profit than both the standard and inverted pyramids.

The maximum-leverage pyramid keeps on adding maximum size up to the limits of accumulated profits and margin requirements. This is the most aggressive strategy possible, and it offers the maximum potential reward, the maximum potential risk, and the worst reward/risk ratios. This pyramid must be combined with tight exit rules, or else it is a formula for near-certain ruin.

Source - http://www.robertwcolby.com/leverage.html

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Buckling in for the ride

Here we go!

Uses of stop loss orders

Plenty of benefits, so remember to have them whenever you have open positions or intend to open new ones. 

Moving Stop Loss Level Part 2

I found my answer today.

To me, Dr Alexander Elder's books are a great way to understand how one can trade for a living.  

Will be moving my stop loss levels to break even from now on. If I get stopped out, I can always try again. 

Moving Stop Loss Level

The 2268.hk stock I bought last Thursday went up to 1.52 on Friday before dropping to trading between 1.43 to 1.44 on Monday.

If I had moved my stop loss level to breakeven (1.45 + fees) at 1.49 on Monday, I would gotten out with no losses.

Some experienced traders suggest that stop loss levels should be moved immediately as soon as the stock goes up to lock in the "profits".

Was I wrong in not doing that or should I continue to leave the SL at its original level?

Addendum on 30 Mar
If I had moved the stop loss, I would have missed out on the profit that I had on this stock. The lesson that I've learnt from this is that we need to give the stock price sufficient space (through appropriate stop loss levels) to "breathe".

To take profit, I must allow the stop loss that I've set to close my position after the price reaches its peak.

Youyuan (2268.hk) - Buy #2

Bought this using a limit order (1000 @ $1.45) I placed yesterday. Hope this doesn't go sour as well.

Jimei (1159.hk) - Buy #1 in HSI

With little research and understanding I actually had the guts to buy a stock (Jimei 1159.hk) I knew little about. Bought yesterday late afternoon and was stopped out this morning when the market opened.

Total damage - (2.22 - 1.98) x 500 shares = hkd 122 = S$22

Lessons
1. Study the stock more before buying - don't just trust your system
2. Check ask and bid before committing - Google finance is 15 minutes
3. Know the daily trading range of the stock to avoid being stopped out - the price is now 2.14. Refer to point 1.
4.  Having a stop loss works to avoid stupid mistakes like these if lessons 1 to 4 are learnt
5. Investing small amounts in the real market teaches more effectively than learning from pure paper trades

Temptation beckons

After 2 week's run-up seeing my tracked stocks chalking gains like no one's business, getting tempted to invest in the real market. 

Addendum on 30 Mar

Through this post, I only realised that it's been less than a month since I started this journey to become a better investor/trader/speculator. I hope that I can continue to learn new lessons to become a better investor/trader/speculator; and in the process, grow wealthier as well :)